How does the S&P 500 Index relate to presidential elections?

Historical data shows that if the S&P 500 Index is positive in the three months leading up to an election, the incumbent president is likely to be re-elected.

What is the historical success rate of the S&P 500 as a predictor?

Since 1928, it has been reported that when the S&P 500 is positive prior to elections, incumbents have won approximately 90% of the time.

What was the S&P 500 Index value on August 3, 2020?

On August 3, 2020, the S&P 500 Index closed at 3,294, which became a crucial number to watch in the lead-up to the November 2020 election.

Should investors take this correlation seriously?

While the correlation between the S&P 500 performance and election outcomes is interesting, it should be taken with caution and viewed more as a fun speculation than a definitive predictor of electoral results.

Is the Stock Market a predictor of Presidential Elections?

Exploring the S&P 500 Index as a Predictor of Presidential Election Outcomes

Can the stock market predict the outcome of the presidential elections? Not really, but there is some interesting data about the S&P 500 Index and the presidential elections.

Since 1984, if the S&P 500 was positive the three months prior to the election, the incumbent was re-elected. If the S&P 500 was negative the opposing party won.

Looking back further in history, BTIG Brokerage reported in the Wall Street Journal on September 7, 2020 that going back to 1928, 90% of the time the incumbent has won if the S&P 500 Index was positive the three months prior to the elections.

On August 3, 2020, the S&P 500 Index closed at 3,294. If the S&P 500 Index is above this number on November 2, 2020, President Trump will be re-elected. If the S&P 500 is below 3,294, Joe Biden will be the next president. I do not read too much into this information other than it is fun to watch and speculate. Now that you know this little tidbit of information, depending which political camp you are in, you may want the S&P 500 Index to continue to rally or have a decline prior to the elections.