What does the term "inverted yield curve" mean?

An inverted yield curve occurs when long-term interest rates fall below short-term rates, which can signal economic uncertainty and potential recession.

How did the Federal Reserve respond to economic conditions in September 2019?

In September 2019, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, reflecting concerns about slowing growth and aiming to stimulate the economy.

What parallels exist between September 2019 and September 2007?

Both periods featured slowing GDP growth, an inverted yield curve, and a Federal Reserve rate cut on September 18, suggesting potential similarities in market behavior and economic risks.

Can historical economic patterns predict future market outcomes?

While history often provides insights into economic trends, it cannot guarantee future outcomes. Analysts use historical data to inform their understanding of current conditions, but unpredictability remains a factor.

Déjà vu

A Historical Comparison: Economic Indicators from 2019 and 2007

Definition “a feeling of having already experienced the present situation.”

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Read the next paragraphs carefully:

Current conditions (September 2019)

“Since last year real GDP growth has been slowing. The chair of the Federal Reserve has been signaling that, while growth is slowing, there is no recession risk and the Fed is forecasting continued positive growth. Warning signs in the economy, including inverted yield curves, have been ignored and markets continued to make new highs in July. In August a correction took place and subsequently a rally in markets ensued into early September. On September 18 the Fed cut rates.”

Previous conditions (September 2007)

The yield curve was inverted, growth was markedly slower in 2007 versus 2006, yet $SPX made a new high in July (same backdrop as 2019), there was an August correction (same as 2019) and then the Fed cut rates on September 18 (same as 2019), literally the same day. September 18.

What is being reported today is exactly what was being reported September 2007, which was four months before the start of the decline of 2008. No one knows or can predict what will happen in the future, but it is interesting how history will often repeat itself.

Source: Sven Heinrich, A Curious Moment in Time, September 16,2019, Northman Trader

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